My colleague, Jared Kizer, who serves as chief investment officer for The BAM Alliance, recently examined the performance of the S&P 500 Index from March 2009 (the bear market ended on March 9, 2009) through October 2018, a period ending shortly before a spate of market volatility in December that saw the index record some dramatic declines.
Using a common statistical analysis referred to as “bootstrapping,” he shows how “otherworldly” the returns to that asset class were over the past decade. Importantly, he also shows that other “alternative universes” > SEE MORE
No Safety Flags In Investing
In case the latest bout of stock market volatility, which we explored earlier in a pair of articles about putting market moves in perspective and the danger of market myopia, is tempting you to sell now and wait for safer times, remember that to benefit from market timing you have to be right twice, not once. I hope the following explanation helps you to decide on the right strategy.
If you go to the beach to ride the waves and you want to know if it’s safe, you simply look to the lifeguard stand. If the flag is green, it’s safe. If it’s red, the ride might be fun, but it’s also too dangerous to take a chance. For many investors today, the market looks too dangerous. So, they don’t want to buy, or they decide to sell.
Here’s the problem. While the surfer can wait a day or two for the ocean to calm down, there is never a green flag that will let you know that it’s safe to invest. You might think that is the case (as many investors did in > SEE MORE
In an earlier post, I explored some historical data and relevant research in an attempt to help investors put recent stock market volatility into perspective. It’s easy to lose sight of the facts amid the stress and anxiety caused by potentially large dips in your portfolio’s value.
Because it’s human nature to seek to avoid pain, the pain of bear markets and underperformance unfortunately tend to cause investors to consider changing strategy. It’s an all-too-human trait to want to believe that someone out there can protect us from bad things happening to our portfolio—despite the fact that the evidence shows no such person exists. However, before choosing a new strategy, you should be sure there is evidence to support your belief in why it will be more likely to help you achieve your goals. Consider the following evidence on three common > SEE MORE